Monday, January 07, 2008

New Hamshpire a Different Venue for Huckabee

Mike Huckabee is experiencing a very different milieu in New Hampshire than the one in which he was able to carve out a decisive victory in Iowa last week. Not only are there fewer fundagelicals in New Hampshire, but they tend to be of a different sort than those who worship (and oragnize and vote) out of the megachuches of the mid-west, west and south. Their congregations are smaller, and, while certainly more conservative than mainline churches, most are unconnected to the national Christian Right organizations like Focus on the Family.

A recent Pew Research Center/AP poll shows that evangelicals are 38% of Iowa Republican voters, 53% of South Carolina's and only only 18% of New Hampshire's republican electorate. So, right now you hear Huckabee talking about 2nd amendment rights, low taxes and small government--issues dear to the hearts of New Hampshire Republicans.

A strong third place finish would be impressive for Huckabee. I would say anything over 15% would look good as he heads to South Carolina, but I wouldn't expect more than that. New England is just not fertile ground for fundagelicalism.


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