Thursday, January 03, 2008

Finally, a Decision in Iowa

At 6:30 p.m. central time tonight, Iowa voters will begin caucusing. It's incredibly close on both sides. I saw Tim Russert on "NBC Nightly News" last evening say that he had talked off-the-record yesterday with the top people behind the scenes in all the major campaigns and asked them who was going to win. Every single response was "We don't have a clue." They, of course, know what their own internal polls say and know what we know from the published polls, which, put together, leave us saying as well, "We don't have a clue."

Historically the most accurate Iowa polling has come from the Des Moines Register. Their latest numbers show Huckabee leading Romney 32% to 26% and Obama leading Clinton 32% to 25% with Edwards at 24% (margin of error +/- 3.5%).

The MSNBC/McClatchy poll shows the races much closer. They have Romney at 27% and Huckabee at 23% among Republican caucusers and among Democrats Edwards at 24%, Clinton at 23% and Obama at 22% (5%+/- margin of error).

Yesterday's Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll also provides no basis for a prediction. Huckabee leads Romney 28% to 26%, and Clinton and Obama are tied at 28% with Edwards close behind at 26% (3.3% +/- margin of error).

Fortunately, living on the west coast, I won't have to stay up as late as most of the political junkies around the country to learn the results.


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